The heavy rains and flooding we have experienced recently, drought remains the most serious threat that climate change poses to California. The winter of 2023 will not alleviate the long-term and worsening drought facing the state any more than the extremely wet years of 2019, 2017, 1998 or 1995 did. As of 17 January 2023, 92% of California remains in moderate to severe drought.
This talk will give a brief introduction into the causes and effects of climate change and then present observational data showing how the drought has worsened over time in the Western United States, in California, and in Monterey County. The physical mechanisms responsible for this worsening drought will be discussed in detail. This discussion will also include consideration of the effect of climate change on two “wild cards” which have bearing on the drought problem in California: (1) the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and (2) atmospheric river events like we have experienced this winter. Finally, a general drought prediction for California and Monterey County for the remainder of this century will be presented.
